Northern Virginia Housing Market Report: March 2026

Key Takeaways: Arlington County led Northern Virginia with a $819,000 median (+7.9% YoY) and 7-day sales pace in March 2026 (Bright MLS). Fairfax County was close behind at $768,000 (+1.7%) selling in 6 days. Loudoun County fell 6.5% to $757,000. Alexandria City dropped 11.9% to $665,000 — the steepest decline in the DC Metro. Northern Virginia in spring 2026 is two distinct markets, not one.

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Northern Virginia in March 2026 is not one housing market — it's at least two, moving in opposite directions. Arlington and Fairfax are surging. Loudoun and Alexandria are pulling back. Understanding which jurisdictions are doing what is essential before making any decision about buying or selling in NoVA this spring.

Here is what Bright MLS reported for Northern Virginia in March 2026.

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Northern Virginia by Jurisdiction: March 2026

| Jurisdiction | Median Price | YoY Change | Median Days on Market | |---|---|---|---| | Arlington County | $819,000 | +7.9% | 7 days | | Fairfax County | $768,000 | +1.7% | 6 days | | Loudoun County | $757,000 | −6.5% | 6 days | | Alexandria (City) | $665,000 | −11.9% | 7 days |

Source: Bright MLS, March 2026, Washington D.C. Metro Area

The divergence is the story: Arlington up 7.9%, Alexandria down 11.9% — both inside the Beltway, adjacent to DC, competing for the same buyer pool. But the March data says entirely different things about each.

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Arlington County: $819,000, Up 7.9%

Arlington is the most expensive jurisdiction in Northern Virginia and it's getting more so. The March 2026 median of $819,000 represents a 7.9% year-over-year increase — the highest price growth rate in NoVA and one of the highest in the entire DC Metro.

What's driving Arlington:

Amazon HQ2. The National Landing (Crystal City/Pentagon City/Potomac Yard) corridor continues to attract high-income tech workers who pay above-asking on condos and townhomes within Metro access of Amazon's campus. This isn't speculation — it's been documented in transaction data since HQ2 opened.

Limited supply. Arlington is the smallest jurisdiction in Northern Virginia by land area (26 square miles). There is essentially no new large-scale single-family development. What comes on the market either sells fast or is torn down and rebuilt.

Federal employment proximity. Pentagon, DHS, DIA, and dozens of federal contractors are headquartered in Arlington. The federal workforce presence creates a floor under demand that doesn't exist in outer suburbs.

At 7 days on market: Arlington homes are moving as fast as the broader DC Metro SFH median. Buyers competing in Arlington need to be fully prepared — pre-approval from a recognized lender, clarity on budget, and the ability to make a decision in 48 hours.

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Fairfax County: $768,000, 6 Days on Market

Fairfax is the largest jurisdiction in Northern Virginia by both population and transaction volume. At $768,000 median and 6 days on market — one day faster than Metro-wide SFH — Fairfax in March 2026 is the most active high-volume market in the region.

The 1.7% year-over-year price growth looks modest compared to Arlington's 7.9%, but that reflects Fairfax's size — averaging across McLean, Vienna, Reston, Herndon, Centreville, and Chantilly produces a blended number.

The Fairfax spectrum:

• McLean/Vienna/Great Falls: $1M–$2M+ range, tech executive and federal contractor buyers, often above-asking in spring
• Reston/Herndon: $600K–$900K, Silver Line access, younger buyer demographic, strong competition
• Centreville/Chantilly: $550K–$750K for SFH and townhomes, best value per square foot in the county
• Springfield/Burke: $550K–$700K, established neighborhoods, strong military/contractor buyer base from Fort Belvoir

Six days on market across all of Fairfax in March means even the outer reaches are moving fast.

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Loudoun County: $757,000, Down 6.5%

Loudoun's March 2026 data is the outlier in Northern Virginia. At $757,000 median with a 6.5% year-over-year price decline, Loudoun is the only major NoVA jurisdiction showing negative price movement.

Why Loudoun is pulling back:

Loudoun saw extreme appreciation in 2020–2022 as remote-work-enabled buyers left DC for more space. As return-to-office mandates have partially reversed that trend, Loudoun has given back some of that premium. Additionally, Loudoun has more new construction than any other NoVA jurisdiction — ongoing development in Dulles South, South Riding, and Arcola adds resale competition.

What this means for buyers: Loudoun at $757,000 with a 6.5% decline and 6 days on market is still competitive on pace, but sellers are more negotiable than in Arlington or Fairfax. Real opportunity for buyers who want outer-ring NoVA values with Silver Line access.

What this means for sellers: Pricing correctly in Loudoun is more important than in any other NoVA market. Comparable sales show declining prices, and buyers know it.

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Alexandria (City): $665,000, Down 11.9%

Alexandria's 11.9% year-over-year price decline is the largest price drop of any jurisdiction in the DC Metro in March 2026.

Important context: Alexandria is a small city (15 square miles) with volatile monthly statistics due to low transaction volume. A single month can show dramatic swings that normalize over a quarter. The March number may reflect a mix shift — fewer premium SFH, more condos — rather than a true 11.9% collapse.

What's actually happening: Alexandria's market is bifurcated. Old Town and Del Ray remain competitive for well-maintained SFH and premium townhomes. The larger inventory problem is in condos — buildings with aging systems, HOA reserve shortfalls, or deferred maintenance creating special assessments. That condo segment is genuinely under pressure.

For buyers: Alexandria's headline decline creates negotiating room that doesn't exist a few miles away. Old Town and Del Ray SFH buyers still face competition. Condo buyers in buildings with HOA issues have real leverage.

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NoVA vs. Maryland: Which Side of the Potomac?

| Market | Median Price | YoY Change | Days on Market | |---|---|---|---| | Montgomery County, MD | $650,000 | +6.6% | 10 days | | Arlington, VA | $819,000 | +7.9% | 7 days | | Fairfax County, VA | $768,000 | +1.7% | 6 days | | DC Metro (all) | $635,000 | +1.6% | 11 days |

Montgomery County at $650K is the most affordable of the inner-ring markets. Arlington and Fairfax command a $100K–$170K premium over MoCo. For buyers with budget flexibility, the choice often comes down to employer location, school preference, and Maryland vs. Virginia personal factors. For a detailed cost comparison, see how much home can you afford in Montgomery County.

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What This Means by Situation

Buying in Arlington or Fairfax: Come fully prepared. Six-to-seven-day markets don't forgive unpreparedness. Pre-approval letter, clear criteria, and the ability to write a competitive offer within 24–48 hours of seeing a home.

Buying in Loudoun: More options, more breathing room, and some pricing flexibility on the seller side. Research specific neighborhoods — the Silver Line corridor has held value better than outlying areas.

Buying in Alexandria: Understand what you're buying. Old Town/Del Ray SFH is competitive. Condos require HOA due diligence before you fall in love with a unit.

Selling in Arlington/Fairfax: Seller's market conditions. Price correctly, present well, and you'll have multiple offers.

Selling in Loudoun/Alexandria: Price accurately because buyers have more data and more options. Homes priced at or slightly below comparable sales are still moving in 6–7 days.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the average home price in Northern Virginia in 2026?

Northern Virginia median prices in March 2026 (Bright MLS): Arlington County $819,000 (+7.9%), Fairfax County $768,000 (+1.7%), Loudoun County $757,000 (−6.5%), Alexandria City $665,000 (−11.9%). The range reflects how different each jurisdiction's supply and demand dynamics are.

Is Northern Virginia a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Arlington and Fairfax remain firmly in seller's market territory in spring 2026 — both selling in 6–7 days. Loudoun and Alexandria have more buyer leverage due to declining prices and higher inventory in specific segments, particularly condos.

What is the average home price in Fairfax County in 2026?

The median sold price in Fairfax County was $768,000 in March 2026 (Bright MLS), up 1.7% year over year. Individual submarkets range from $550K–$700K in Centreville/Chantilly to $1M+ in McLean, Vienna, and Great Falls.

Why are home prices dropping in Alexandria in 2026?

Alexandria's 11.9% year-over-year decline in March 2026 reflects condo segment softness (buildings with HOA issues and deferred maintenance), some reversal of the walkable-to-DC premium, and low monthly transaction volume that amplifies statistical volatility. Well-located SFH in Old Town and Del Ray have not seen similar declines.

Is Loudoun County a good place to buy in 2026?

Loudoun offers the largest homes per dollar in Northern Virginia with Silver Line access. The 6.5% price decline reflects correction from pandemic-era over-appreciation. For buyers who want more space with a manageable commute to DC, Loudoun in 2026 represents real value relative to the inner suburbs.

How does Arlington compare to Montgomery County for buyers in 2026?

Arlington ($819K, +7.9%) is priced roughly $170K above Montgomery County ($650K, +6.6%). Both are experiencing strong appreciation. Montgomery County offers lower entry prices with comparable growth; Arlington offers shorter Metro commutes to DC core and the Amazon HQ2 job corridor.

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